Prognostic factors for malignant mesothelioma in 142 patients : validation of CALGB and EORTC prognostic scoring systems

Background The incidence of malignant mesothelioma is increasing. There is the perception that survival is worse in the UK than in other countries. However, it is important to compare survival in different series based on accurate prognostic data. The European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) and the Cancer and Leukaemia Group B (CALGB) have recently published prognostic scoring systems. We have assessed the prognostic variables, validated the EORTC and CALGB prognostic groups, and evaluated survival in a series of 142 patients. Methods Case notes of 142 consecutive patients presenting in Leicester since 1988 were reviewed. Univariate analysis of prognostic variables was performed using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. Statistically significant variables were analysed further in a forward, stepwise multivariate model. EORTC and CALGB prognostic groups were derived, Kaplan-Meier survival curves plotted, and survival rates were calculated from life tables. Results Significant poor prognostic factors in univariate analysis included male sex, older age, weight loss, chest pain, poor performance status, low haemoglobin, leukocytosis, thrombocytosis, and non-epithelial cell type (p<0.05). The prognostic significance of cell type, haemoglobin, white cell count, performance status, and sex were retained in the multivariate model. Overall median survival was 5.9 (range 0-34.3) months. One and two year survival rates were 21.3% (95% CI 13.9 to 28.7) and 3.5% (0 to 8.5), respectively. Median, one, and two year survival data within prognostic groups in Leicester were equivalent to the EORTC and CALGB series. Survival curves were successfully stratified by the prognostic groups. Conclusions This study validates the EORTC and CALGB prognostic scoring systems which should be used both in the assessment of survival data of series in different countries and in the stratification of patients into randomised clinical studies.

Overexpression of the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) and angioinvasion are poor prognostic factors in early stage NSCLC: A verification study

Background: A recent study by Dhillon et al. [12], identified both angioinvasion and mTOR as prognostic biomarkers for poor survival in early stage NSCLC. The aim of this study was to verify the above study by examining the angioinvasion and mTOR expression profile in a cohort of early stage NSCLC patients and correlate the results to patient clinico-pathological data and survival. Methods: Angioinvasion was routinely recorded by the pathologist at the initial assessment of the tumor following resection. mTOR was evaluated in 141 early stage (IA-IIB) NSCLC patients (67 - squamous; 60 - adenocarcinoma; 14 - others) using immunohistochemistry (IHC) analysis with an immunohistochemical score (IHS) calculated (% positive cells × staining intensity). Intensity was scored as follows: 0 (negative); 1+ (weak); 2+ (moderate); 3+ (strong). The range of scores was 0-300. Based on the previous study a cut-off score of 30 was used to define positive versus negative patients. The impact of angioinvasion and mTOR expression on prognosis was then evaluated. Results: 101 of the 141 tumors studied expressed mTOR. There was no difference in mTOR expression between squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma. Angioinvasion (p= 0.024) and mTOR staining (p= 0.048) were significant univariate predictors of poor survival. Both remained significant after multivariate analysis (p= 0.037 and p= 0.020, respectively). Conclusions: Our findings verify angioinvasion and mTOR expression as new biomarkers for poor outcome in patients with early stage NSCLC. mTOR expressing patients may benefit from novel therapies targeting the mTOR survival pathway. © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Single-agent versus combination chemotherapy in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer and a performance status of 2 : prognostic factors and treatment selection based on two large randomized clinical trials

Purpose: Data from two randomized phase III trials were analyzed to evaluate prognostic factors and treatment selection in the first-line management of advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients with performance status (PS) 2. Patients and Methods: Patients randomized to combination chemotherapy (carboplatin and paclitaxel) in one trial and single-agent therapy (gemcitabine or vinorelbine) in the second were included in these analyses. Both studies had identical eligibility criteria and were conducted simultaneously. Comparison of efficacy and safety was performed between the two cohorts. A regression analysis identified prognostic factors and subgroups of patients that may benefit from combination or single-agent therapy. Results: Two hundred one patients were treated with combination and 190 with single-agent therapy. Objective responses were 37 and 15%, respectively. Median time to progression was 4.6 months in the combination arm and 3.5 months in the single-agent arm (p < 0.001). Median survival imes were 8.0 and 6.6 months, and 1-year survival rates were 31 and 26%, respectively. Albumin <3.5 g, extrathoracic metastases, lactate dehydrogenase ≥200 IU, and 2 comorbid conditions predicted outcome. Patients with 0-2 risk factors had similar outcomes independent of treatment, whereas patients with 3-4 factors had a nonsignificant improvement in median survival with combination chemotherapy. Conclusion: Our results show that PS2 non-small cell lung cancer patients are a heterogeneous group who have significantly different outcomes. Patients treated with first-line combination chemotherapy had a higher response and longer time to progression, whereas overall survival did not appear significantly different. A prognostic model may be helpful in selecting PS 2 patients for either treatment strategy. © 2009 by the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer.

Clinico-pathological and biological prognostic factors in pleural malignant mesothelioma

In the UK mortality from malignant mesothelioma (MM) is likely to more than double over the next 20 years and despite advances in surgery, chemotherapy and radiation treatment the overall prognosis for patients remains poor. A number of scoring systems based on assessment of clinicopathological features of patients with the disease have been developed but the search continues for further prognostic indicators. Angiogenesis, tumour necrosis (TN), epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) expression, cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) and matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) have been linked with poor prognosis in some types of solid tumour and their relevance as prognostic factors in malignant mesothelioma is examined in this paper. © 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic factors in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer : data from the phase III FLEX study

The FLEX study demonstrated that the addition of cetuximab to chemotherapy significantly improved overall survival in the first-line treatment of patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In the FLEX intention to treat (ITT) population, we investigated the prognostic significance of particular baseline characteristics. Individual patient data from the treatment arms of the ITT population of the FLEX study were combined. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were used to investigate variables with potential prognostic value. The ITT population comprised 1125 patients. In the univariable analysis, longer median survival times were apparent for females compared with males (12.7 vs 9.3 months); patients with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) of 0 compared with 1 compared with 2 (13.5 vs 10.6 vs 5.9 months); never smokers compared with former smokers compared with current smokers (14.6 vs 11.1 vs 9.0); Asians compared with Caucasians (19.5 vs 9.6 months); patients with adenocarcinoma compared with squamous cell carcinoma (12.4 vs 9.3 months) and those with metastases to one site compared with two sites compared with three or more sites (12.4 months vs 9.8 months vs 6.4 months). Age (<65 vs ≥65 years), tumor stage (IIIB with pleural effusion vs IV) and percentage of tumor cells expressing EGFR (<40% vs ≥40%) were not identified as possible prognostic factors in relation to survival time. In multivariable analysis, a stepwise selection procedure identified age (<65 vs ≥65 years), gender, ECOG PS, smoking status, region, tumor histology, and number of organs involved as independent factors of prognostic value. In summary, in patients with advanced NSCLC enrolled in the FLEX study, and consistent with previous analyses, particular patient and disease characteristics at baseline were shown to be independent factors of prognostic value. The FLEX study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00148798. © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Novel prognostic factors in chronic myeloid leukemia

Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is a malignant clonal blood disease that originates from a pluripotent hematopoietic stem cell. The cytogenetic hallmark of CML, the Philadelphia chromosome (Ph), is formed as a result of reciprocal translocation between chromosomes 9 and 22, which leads to a formation of a chimeric BCR-ABL fusion gene. The BCR-ABL protein is a constitutively active tyrosine kinase that changes the adhesion properties of cells, constitutively activates mitogenic signaling, enhances cell proliferation and reduces apoptosis. This results in leukemic growth and the clinical disease, CML. With the advent of targeted therapies against the BCR-ABL fusion protein, the treatment of CML has changed considerably during the recent decade. In this thesis, the clinical significance of different diagnostic methods and new prognostic factors in CML have been assessed. First, the association between two different methods for measuring CML disease burden (the RQ-PCR and the high mitotic index metaphase FISH) was assessed in bone marrow and peripheral blood samples. The correlation between positive RQ-PCR and metaphase FISH samples was high. However, RQ-PCR was more sensitive and yielded measurable transcripts in 40% of the samples that were negative by metaphase FISH. The study established a laboratory-specific conversion factor for setting up the International Scale when standardizing RQ-PCR measurements. Secondly, the amount of minimal residual disease (MRD) after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (alloHSCT) was determined. For this, metaphase FISH was done for the bone marrow samples of 102 CML patients. Most (68%), had no residual cells during the entire follow-up time. Some (12 %) patients had minor (<1%) MRD which decreased even further with time, whereas 19% had a progressive rise in MRD that exceeded 1% or had more than 1% residual cells when first detected. Residual cells did not become eradicated spontaneously if the frequency of Ph+ cells exceeded 1% during follow-up. Next, the impact of deletions in the derivative chromosome 9, was examined. Deletions were observed in 15% of the CML patients who later received alloHSCT. After alloHSCT, there was no difference in the total relapse rate in patients with or without deletions. Nor did the estimates of overall survival, transplant-related mortality, leukemia-free survival and relapse-free time show any difference between these groups. When conventional treatment regimens are used, the der(9) status could be an important criterion, in conjunction with other prognostic factors, when allogeneic transplantation is considered. The significance of der(9) deletions for patients treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors is not clear and requires further investigation. In addition to the der(9) status of the patient, the significance of bone marrow lymphocytosis as a prognostic factor in CML was assessed. Bone marrow lymphocytosis during imatinib therapy was a positive predictive factor and heralded optimal response. When combined with major cytogenetic response at three months of treatment, bone marrow lymphocytosis predicted a prognostically important major molecular response at 18 months of imatinib treatment. Although the validation of these findings is warranted, the determination of the bone marrow lymphocyte count could be included in the evaluation of early response to imatinib treatment already now. Finally, BCR-ABL kinase domain mutations were studied in CML patients resistant against imatinib treatment. Point mutations detected in the kinase domain were the same as previously reported, but other sequence variants, e.g. deletions or exon splicing, were also found. The clinical significance of the other variations remains to be determined.

Tumour markers as prognostic factors of survival of gastric cancer patients

The incidence of gastric cancer in the last decades has declined rapidly in the industrialised countries. Worldwide, however, gastric cancer is still the second most common cause of cancer death. Although surgery is currently the most effective treatment, the rapid progress in adjuvant chemotherapy and radiation therapy requires a re-evaluation of prognosis assessment. The TNM staging system of the UICC is ubiquitously used; it groups patients by decreasing survival times from stage I to stage IV based on the spread of disease, i.e. depth of tumour penetration (T), extent of spread to lymph nodes (N), and the presence or absence of distant (M) metastases. This is by far the most consistent prognostic classification system today. However, even within the stage groups there are patients that follow a varying course of disease. Our knowledge of the molecular differences between tumours of the same stage and morphology has been accumulating over the years and methods for a more accurate assessment of the phenotype of neoplasias are of value when evaluating the prognosis of individual patients with gastric cancer. In this study, the immunohistochemical expression of tumour markers involved in different phases in tumourigenesis was examined. The aim was to find new markers which could provide prognostic information in addition to what is provided by the TNM variables. A total of 337 specimens from the primary tumour of patients who underwent surgery for gastric cancer were collected and the immunohistochemical expression of seven different biomarkers was analysed. DNA ploidy and S-phase fraction (SPF) was assessed by flow cytometry. Finally, all biomarkers and clinicopathological prognostic factors were combined and evaluated by a multivariate Cox regression model to elucidate which specific factors provide independent prognostic information. By univariate survival analysis the following variables were significant prognostic factors: epithelial and stromal syndecan-1 expression, stromal tenascin-C expression, expression of tumour-associated trypsin inhibitor (TATI) in cancer cells, nuclear p53 expression, nuclear p21 expression, DNA ploidy, and SPF. By multivariate survival analysis adjusted for all available clinicopathological and biomolecular variables, p53 expression, p21 expression, and DNA ploidy emerged as independent prognostic biomarkers, together with penetration depth of the tumour, presence of nodal metastases, surgical cure of the cancer, and age of the patient at the time of diagnosis.

Primary polyestradiol phosphate versus orchiectomy for advanced prostate cancer : Studies on the efficacy, cardiovascular complications and prognostic factors

Paikallisesti levinnyttä (T3-4 M0) ja luustoon levinnyttä (T1-4 M1) eturauhassyöpää sairastaneet potilaat satunnaistettiin kirurgiseen kastraatioon (orkiektomia) tai lääkkeelliseen kastraatioon lihaksensisäisellä polyestradiolifosfaatilla (PEP) annoksella 240 mg/kk. Verrattiin hoitojen kliinistä tehoa sekä sydän- ja verisuonikomplikaatioita (SV-komplikaatioita). Verrattiin myös hoitoa edeltäviä plasman testosteroni (T) ja estradioli (E2) pitoisuuksia T3-4 M0 ja T1-4 M1 potilaiden välillä sekä selvitettiin potilaiden yleistilan vaikutusta näihin hormonitasoihin. Lopuksi luotiin T1-4 M1 potilaille eturauhassyövän aiheuttaman kuoleman ennusteellinen riskiluokittelu kolmeen riskiryhmään käyttämällä hoitoa edeltäviä ennustetekijöitä. Kliinisessä tehossa ei orkiektomian ja PEP-hoidon välillä todettu tilastollisesti merkitsevää eroa. Odotetusti T1-4 M1 potilaiden ennuste oli huonompi kuin T3-4 M0 potilaiden. T1-4 M1 potilailla ei ollut SV-kuolemissa hoitoryhmien välillä tilastollista eroa, mutta ei-tappavia SV-komplikaatioita oli PEP ryhmässä (5.9%) enemmän kuin orkiektomia ryhmässä (2.0%). T3-4 M0 potilailla PEP-hoitoon liittyi tilastollisesti merkitsevä SV-kuolleisuus riski orkiektomiaan verrattuna (p = 0.001). PEP ryhmässä 67% kuolemista oli akuutteja sydäninfarkteja. Tämä PEP hoitoon liittyvä sydäninfarktiriski (mukaan lukien myös ei-tappavat sydäninfarktit) oli merkitsevästi pienempi potilailla, joiden hoitoa edeltävä E2 taso oli vähintään 93 pmol/l (p = 0.022). E2 taso oli merkitsevästi matalampi T1-4 M1 potilailla (74.7 pmol/l) kuin T3-4 M0 potilailla (87.9 pmol/l), mutta vastaavaa eroa ei ollut T tasoissa. Sekä T3-4 M0 että T1-4 M1 potilailla yleistilan lasku osittain selitti yksilöllisen T ja E2 tasojen laskun. Eturauhassyövän aiheuttaman kuoleman riskiryhmäluokittelu (Rg) kolmeen ryhmään luotiin käyttämällä alkalista fosfataasia (AFOS), prostata spesifistä antigeenia (PSA), laskoa (La) ja potilaan ikää. Yksi riskipiste annettiin, jos AFOS > 180 U/l (tällä hetkellä käytössä olevalla menetelmällä AFOS > 83 U/l), PSA > 35 µg/l, La > 80 mm/h ja ikä < 60 vuotta. Lopuksi pisteet laskettiin yhteen. Muodostettiin seuraavat ryhmät: Rg-a (0 -1 riskipistettä), Rg-b (2 riskipistettä) ja Rg-c (3 – 4 riskipistettä). Eturauhassyövän aiheuttama kuoleman riski lisääntyi merkitsevästi siirryttäessä riskiryhmästä seuraavaan (p < 0.001). Rg-luokittelu oli kliinisesti käytännöllinen ja hyvä havaitsemaan huonon ennusteen potilaat.

Primary Fallopian tube carcinoma:occurrence, risk and prognostic factors

The aim of the study was to clarify the occurrence, and etiological and prognostic factors of primary fallopian tube carcinoma (PFTC). We studied the sociodemographic determinants of the incidence of PFTC in Finland and the role of chlamydial infections and human papillomavirus infections as risk factors for PFTC. Serum tumor markers were studied as prognostic factors for PFTC. We also evaluated selected reproductive factors (parity, sterilization and hysterectomy) as risk or protective factors of PFTC. The risks of second primary cancers after PFTC were also studied. The age-adjusted incidence of PFTC in Finland increased to 5.4 / 1,000,000 in 1993 97. The incidence rate was higher in the cities, but the relative rise was higher in rural areas. Women in the two highest social classes showed a 1.8 fold incidence compared with those in the lowest. Women in agriculture and those not working outside the home showed only half the PFTC incidence of those in higher socioeconomic occupations. Pretreatment serum concentrations of hCGβ, CA125 and TATI were evaluated as prognostic markers for PFTC. Elevated hCGβ values (above the 75th percentile, 3.5 pmol/L; OR 2.49, 95% CI 1.22 5.09), stage and histology were strong independent prognostic factors for PFTC. The effects of parity, sterilization and hysterectomy on the risk of PFTC were studied in a case control-study with 573 PFTC cases from the Finnish Cancer Registry. In multivariate analysis parity was the only significant protective factor as regards PFTC, with increasing protection associated with increasing number of deliveries. In univariate analysis sterilization gave borderline protection against PFTC and the protective effect increased with time since the operation. In multivariate analysis the protection did not reach statistical significance. Chlamydial and human papillomavirus (HPV) infections were studied in two separate seroepidemiological case-control studies with 78 PFTC patients. The incidence of women with positive HPV or chlamydial serology was the same in PFTC patients and in the control group and was not found to be a risk factor for PFTC. Finally, the possible risk of a second primary cancer after diagnosis and treatment of PFTC in a cohort of 2084 cases from 13 cancer registries followed for second primary cancers within the period 1943 2000 was studied. In PFTC patients, second primary cancers were 36% more common than expected (SIR 1.36, 95% CI 1.13 1.63). In conclusion, the incidence of PFTC has increased in Finland, especially in higher social classes and among those in certain occupations. Elevated serum hCGβ reflect a worsened prognosis. Parity is a clear protective factor, as is previous sterilization. After PFTC there is a risk of second primary cancers, especially colorectal, breast, lung and bladder cancers and non-lymphoid leukemia. The excess of colorectal and breast cancers after PFTC may indicate common effects of earlier treatments, or they could reflect common effects of lifestyle or genetic, immunological or environmental background.

Baseline health-related quality-of-life data as prognostic factors in a phase III multicentre study of women with metastatic breast cancer.

The potential value of baseline health-related quality-of-life (HRQOL) and clinical factors in predicting prognosis was examined using data from an international randomised phase III trial which compared doxorubicin and paclitaxel with doxorubicin and cylophosphamide as first line chemotherapy in 275 women with metastatic breast cancer. The European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) QLQ-C30 and the related breast module (QLQ-BR23) were used to assess baseline HRQOL data. The Cox proportional-hazards regression model was used for both univariate and multivariate analyses of survival. In the univariate analyses, performance status (P<0.001) and number of sites involved (P=0.001) were the most important clinical prognostic factors. The HRQOL variables at baseline most strongly associated with longer survival were better appetite, physical and role functioning, as well as less fatigue (P<0.001). The final multivariate model retained performance status (P<0.001) and appetite loss (P=0.005) as the variables best predicting survival. Substantial loss of appetite was the only independent HRQOL factor predicting poor survival and was strongly correlated (/r/>0.5) with fatigue, role and physical functioning. In addition to known clinical factors, appetite loss appears to be a significant prognostic factor for survival in women with metastatic breast cancer. However, the mechanism underlying this association remains to be precisely defined in future studies.